Fifty days of war involving Iran and regional powers have removed more than $50 billion worth of crude oil from global markets, creating what analysts describe as the largest modern disruption to world energy supplies.
According to Reuters calculations and market analysts, more than 500 million barrels of crude oil and condensate have been lost since the conflict began in late February. At average prices near $100 per barrel, the missing supply translates to roughly $50 billion in lost revenue.
The war’s impact has been especially severe across Gulf producers. Countries in the region lost about 8 million barrels per day of crude production in March, a decline comparable to the combined output of Exxon Mobil and Chevron, two of the world’s largest oil companies.
Energy analysts said the supply loss equals nearly a month of oil demand in the United States or more than a month’s supply for all of Europe. It would also be enough fuel to power global shipping for about four months.
The aviation sector has also been hit. Jet fuel exports from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman plunged from 19.6 million barrels in February to just 4.1 million barrels combined during March and April to date. Analysts said that amount could have fueled roughly 20,000 round-trip flights between New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport and Heathrow Airport.
Although Abbas Araqchi said the Strait of Hormuz was open following a ceasefire agreement, analysts warned that a full recovery could take months or even years. The narrow waterway is one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints, handling about one-fifth of global oil shipments under normal conditions.
Global onshore crude inventories have already dropped by about 45 million barrels in April, according to market data. Production outages since late March have averaged around 12 million barrels per day.
Industry experts say damaged fields, refineries and export terminals may not return quickly. Heavier crude operations in Iraq and Kuwait could take several months to normalize, while broader infrastructure repairs in the Gulf may take years.
Source: Reuters