The standoff between YouTube TV and Disney stretched into its 13th day on Wednesday, with new estimates suggesting the blackout is inflicting tens of millions of dollars in weekly losses on the entertainment giant while millions of subscribers remain without access to ABC, ESPN, and other Disney-owned networks.
A Morgan Stanley analysis released Sunday projected that 14 days of lost distribution on YouTube TV — the nation’s third-largest live-TV provider — would shave roughly $60 million from Disney’s revenue. That amounts to an estimated $30 million per week, or more than $4 million per day. Analysts noted that every week of continued blackout could trim Disney’s adjusted earnings per share by roughly two cents, though the firm maintained its overweight rating and $140 target for Disney stock.
The dispute, now nearing two weeks, centers on carriage fees. Disney claims that YouTube TV is demanding below-market terms and has made few concessions, while YouTube TV argues that the rates Disney seeks would force customer price increases and do not accurately reflect the performance of its channels on the platform. Efforts to temporarily restore ABC for Election Day coverage failed when the two sides could not agree on short-term arrangements.
For subscribers, the blackout has meant the loss of major live sports — including ABC and ESPN’s NFL and college football coverage — as well as local news and network programming. In response, YouTube TV is offering a $20 credit to customers. The company said family managers will receive instructions on how to redeem the credit in the coming days, calling the move an acknowledgement of the disruption while negotiations continue.
Disney, which also recently clashed with other distributors, says it has offered YouTube TV the same terms provided to competing bundles such as Hulu + Live TV and Fubo. Alphabet, YouTube TV’s parent company, has not disclosed how many customers have canceled or paused service during the blackout.
The financial impact extends beyond subscription losses. Analysts say prolonged blackouts can erode advertising revenue tied to high-profile live events, potentially compounding the cost to Disney as sports audiences seek alternative platforms.
Morgan Stanley predicted the dispute could be resolved later this week, but with neither company signaling a breakthrough, subscribers remain in limbo as the holiday sports season approaches — and the financial pressure on both sides continues to rise.
Source: Fox Business