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Older adults now outnumber youngest children worldwide

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For the first time in recorded history, people age 65 and older outnumber children age 5 and younger worldwide, marking a demographic shift expected to become much more pronounced in coming decades.

A new U.S. Census Bureau report shows older adults surpassed young children in 2023, reflecting both falling birth rates and longer lifespans.

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More than 71% of the world’s population lived in countries where fertility rates were at or below the replacement level of about 2.1 births per woman in 2023. Just a decade earlier, the figure was 45%.

The shift is occurring faster than demographers had previously expected and extends well beyond wealthy nations. China and India, the world’s two most populous countries, now have fertility rates below replacement level. Bangladesh, Mexico and Vietnam are among other populous nations that have fallen below that threshold since 2013.

At the same time, the number of older adults is rising rapidly.

The world’s population age 65 and older is projected to increase from 852 million in 2025 to about 2 billion by 2060. Older adults would then represent nearly 20% of the global population, compared with about 10.5% today.

The United States is part of the trend. About 18.9% of the U.S. population was 65 or older in 2025. That is projected to rise to 23.4% by 2060.

The changing age balance presents significant economic and social challenges. Smaller generations of younger people could mean fewer workers and caregivers available to support larger older populations, increasing pressure on pension systems, health care and long-term care. In the United States, the trend could add to concerns about the long-term financing of Social Security.

Asia is expected to experience the largest numerical increase, with its population of older adults projected to grow from 487 million in 2025 to 1.24 billion by 2060. Africa will remain the world’s youngest region, but its 65-and-older population is projected to more than quadruple.

The Census report also notes that population aging has a positive side. Longer lives reflect major improvements in health and survival over the past century.

Source: US Census, Axios

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