The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2024. The agency’s annual outlook, which monitors factors such as sea surface temperatures and climatic patterns, suggests a significantly active year ahead. This prediction marks it as potentially the most active season since 2010, with an expected 17 to 25 named storms. Of these, 8 to 13 are likely to escalate into hurricanes, including 4 to 7 major hurricanes achieving winds of 115 mph or more.
The forecast attributes this surge in hurricane activity to unusually warm Atlantic waters and a waning El Niño. Experts predict the Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index, which quantifies the intensity and duration of storms, to be 150% to 245% above the median, indicating a hyperactive season.
This outlook echoes a broader consensus among meteorological agencies, with many predicting up to 25 named storms for the year, a number that could deplete the predefined list of 21 storm names and necessitate additional names. Such predictions underscore an 85% likelihood of surpassing the average activity levels seen from 1991 to 2020.
Factors like the transition from El Niño to potentially a La Niña phase are influencing these projections, enhancing conditions favorable for cyclones in the Atlantic. This forecast does not pinpoint specific U.S. cities at risk but suggests increased probabilities for coastal impacts.
Source: NOAA