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Canadian tourism to the U.S. has dropped sharply

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A new study from researchers at the University of Toronto has found a steep decline in Canadian travel to major U.S. cities during President Donald Trump’s second administration, highlighting growing economic and political tensions between the neighboring countries.

According to the study, Canadian visits to major metropolitan areas in the United States fell by approximately 42% year-over-year, a much sharper decline than the roughly 25% drop reflected in official border-crossing statistics.

Researchers used a new tool that tracks anonymous cell phone activity to analyze travel patterns between April 1, 2024, and March 31, 2026. The data showed significant decreases not only in border communities but also in major destinations including Las Vegas, Walt Disney World, and popular winter destinations in Florida.

The study found that Canadians are increasingly avoiding travel to the United States amid concerns over immigration enforcement operations, tighter border crackdowns, and anger over tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Researchers also pointed to frustration over Trump’s repeated remarks suggesting Canada could become “the 51st state.”

The downturn has been especially painful for U.S. border communities that rely heavily on Canadian tourism and shopping traffic. However, researchers said the decline extended far beyond those areas, affecting large metropolitan and business centers in states including New York, New Hampshire, and Vermont.

Karen Chapple, director of the School of Cities at the University of Toronto and one of the report’s co-authors, said one particularly notable decline occurred in Grand Rapids, which has longstanding economic ties with Ontario through the auto industry. Researchers suggested tariffs on Canadian goods, including vehicles, may have reduced work-related travel between the regions.

The report also indicated that the cell phone data may reflect more than tourism trends alone. Researchers noted the technology can capture shifts involving Canadians who had been temporarily living in the U.S. but have since returned home.

Meanwhile, Canadian government data shows travel in both directions has slowed. Canadian-resident return trips from the U.S. fell 25% in 2025, while trips to Canada by U.S. residents declined by 7.5%.

Source: The Guardian

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