Meteorologists say El Niño is expected to develop by July, but its influence on summer weather across the United States may remain fairly limited until later in the year.

According to weather experts, El Niño typically has a much stronger effect during the fall and winter months because it works closely with the jet stream, which is more active during cooler weather.

The jet stream, a fast-moving current of air high in the atmosphere, plays a major role in driving winter storms, sharp temperature swings, and large-scale weather systems across the country. During summer, however, the jet stream weakens as temperature differences between northern and southern regions decrease.

Without a strong jet stream, summer weather is often shaped more by localized systems such as thunderstorms, sea breezes, heat domes, and monsoon activity rather than broad atmospheric patterns linked to El Niño.

Forecasters say that means many communities could experience what feels like a relatively normal summer despite El Niño’s development in the Pacific Ocean.

Still, some indirect impacts are possible. El Niño often suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity because of stronger upper-level winds over the Caribbean that can disrupt tropical storm formation. In some parts of the Southeast, that could also contribute to drier conditions.

Meanwhile, the Southwest could see occasional increases in tropical moisture during monsoon season, although experts say longer dry stretches between storms are also possible.

Meteorologists also warn that El Niño’s warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean could help push global temperatures even higher over the next two years. Previous strong El Niño events in 2015 and 2016 contributed to some of the warmest years ever recorded worldwide.

Source: The Weather Channel