Hunker down. Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow and predicted six more weeks of winter.
Groundhog Day returned this morning with thousands of eyes once again fixed on frigid Punxsutawney, where the nation’s most famous groundhog emerged to deliver his annual weather prediction. The weather was so cold (3 degrees) that Phil didn’t even pose for photos.
As tradition dictates, if Phil sees his shadow, it is taken as a sign of six more weeks of winter, and he retreats back into his burrow. If no shadow appears, Phil is said to foresee an early spring and remains above ground. The 2026 ceremony was streamed live by CBS Philadelphia, allowing viewers across the country to watch the ritual unfold in real time.
Phil’s forecast is part of a custom that dates back well over a century. Groundhog Day has its roots in Candlemas Day, a Christian holiday that became associated with weather prediction through European folklore. An old folk song suggested that fair weather on Candlemas meant more winter was still to come. In Germany, that belief evolved to involve a hedgehog, whose shadow was said to predict a “second winter.”
When German immigrants brought the tradition to the United States, hedgehogs were nowhere to be found. The role instead fell to a native hibernating animal: the groundhog. The first recorded mention of Groundhog Day appeared in Punxsutawney’s local newspaper in 1886, and the first official observance soon followed at Gobbler’s Knob.
Today, Phil is overseen by the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club Inner Circle, whose members, dressed in tuxedos and top hats, handle the animal and guard the legend surrounding him. The club maintains that Phil is more than 150 years old, sustained by a secret “elixir of life,” and insists that his predictions are always correct.
Official statistics tell a different story. According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Phil’s long-term accuracy rate is about one-third. From 2015 through 2024, NOAA calculated his predictions were correct roughly 30% of the time. Among 20 well-known prognosticating animals nationwide, Phil ranks near the bottom, behind competitors such as Staten Island Chuck and Georgia’s General Beauregard Lee.
Even so, Phil’s popularity remains unmatched. His all-time record lists 107 predictions of more winter and 21 calls for an early spring, and crowds continue to gather each Feb. 2 to celebrate a tradition that blends folklore, humor and midwinter hope.
Source: CBS