Murders fell sharply across the United States last year, and a panel of crime researchers says workers who defuse street disputes, programs that combine police enforcement with help for people involved in violence, and recovery from the pandemic likely helped drive the decline.

The FBI estimates that murder and nonnegligent manslaughter offenses dropped 18.1 percent in 2025 compared with 2024. Robbery, rape and aggravated assault also declined.

But identifying why killings fell is harder than counting them. The Council on Criminal Justice brought 48 researchers to Arizona State University on September 18–19 to examine possible explanations for the decline since 2022. Their assessment, released in October, weighs existing evidence and professional judgments; it does not prove that any particular policy caused the national drop.

Community violence intervention drew the broadest support. These programs use trusted outreach workers to settle disputes, interrupt retaliation and connect people at risk of being shot—or shooting someone—to services. Ninety-one percent of respondents judged their expansion a major or limited contributor.

Recovery from the pandemic also ranked highly. Eighty-three percent said the easing of social and economic disruption contributed, and 57 percent rated it a major factor—the only explanation to receive that rating from a majority.

The same 83 percent supported focused deterrence as a contributor. Under that approach, police, service providers and community members identify groups involved in serious violence, offer assistance and warn that continued violence will bring targeted enforcement.

Researchers also pointed to stronger local services and proactive policing. National Guard deployments, expanded immigration enforcement and increased incarceration received much less support as explanations for the recent decline.

Killings have fallen in cities with different political leaders and policing strategies, while some communities have seen smaller improvements than others. The researchers called for closer comparisons of places with large declines and those without them to determine which efforts helped—and under what conditions.