Rising motor oil costs are expected to make oil changes more expensive

Drivers may soon notice another increase in the cost of owning a vehicle, as disruptions tied to the war with Iran are pushing up prices for motor oil and threatening to make routine oil changes more expensive.

Industry analysts say the cost of Group III base oil, a key ingredient in synthetic motor oils used by many modern vehicles, has surged since the conflict began. The United States imports much of the specialized oil used to make synthetic lubricants, with more than 45% of supplies coming from the Middle East.

The situation has been compounded by reduced shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and damage to Shell’s Pearl gas-to-liquids plant in Qatar, one of the world’s largest producers of Group III base oil. About half of the facility’s output is expected to remain offline for at least a year.

Although South Korea is another major supplier, its refineries depend heavily on Middle Eastern crude, limiting alternatives. Domestic refiners can produce conventional Group II base oils, but many are prioritizing diesel fuel production, which currently offers higher profits.

The result has been tightening supplies and rising costs throughout the lubricant industry. Analysts say existing inventories have delayed the impact on consumers, but those stockpiles are shrinking.

Repair shops are beginning to feel the pressure. Some mechanics report wholesale prices for standard motor oil have climbed sharply, while tariffs on auto parts such as filters, belts, and brake components have added to overall maintenance costs.

Experts say motorists should continue following manufacturer recommendations for oil changes and not substitute cheaper products without confirming they meet required specifications. Many newer vehicles using synthetic oils can safely go much longer between changes than the old 3,000-mile standard, potentially helping drivers offset higher prices.

Mechanics also recommend shopping around for estimates and staying current on routine maintenance. Delaying necessary service can turn relatively inexpensive preventative work into much more costly repairs.

Even if tensions in the Middle East ease, analysts expect supply constraints and elevated prices to persist into 2027, when new production facilities are expected to come online. Until then, drivers are likely to face fewer choices and higher costs for one of the most basic forms of vehicle maintenance.

Source: NPR