The U.S. murder rate dropped sharply in 2025, reaching its lowest level since at least 1900 and marking a dramatic reversal from the surge in violent crime seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to new data reviewed by Axios.
Murders fell 21% last year across 35 large U.S. cities tracked by the Council on Criminal Justice, the largest one-year decline ever recorded in the group’s data. Based on those figures, researchers project a national homicide rate of about 4.0 per 100,000 residents for 2025 — a level not seen in more than a century.
The data suggest the steep rise in violence during 2020 through 2022 has fully receded. Since peaking during the pandemic era, homicide rates have steadily declined, falling below levels recorded in nearly every year since the early 1900s.
Beyond homicide, crime broadly trended downward. Of 13 major offenses tracked by the Council on Criminal Justice, 11 declined in 2025 compared with the prior year. Nine categories dropped by 10% or more. Aggravated assaults decreased 9%, while gun assaults and robbery fell 22% and 23%, respectively. Drug-related crimes were the only category to rise, increasing 7%.
The findings land amid a political debate over crime and public safety. President Donald Trump has portrayed himself as a law-and-order leader, crediting federal crackdowns, including National Guard deployments and stricter immigration enforcement, for improving safety in major cities.
However, the report notes that violent crime was already falling to a two-decade low in the final year of President Joe Biden’s administration, raising questions about how much recent federal policies have influenced the trend. A White House spokesperson said the administration has taken a “whole-of-government” approach to crime reduction, while researchers cautioned against attributing the drop to any single factor.
Council on Criminal Justice President Adam Gelb said it remains difficult to pinpoint the precise causes, citing overlapping changes in criminal justice policy, technology, economic conditions and broader social behavior.
City-level data showed declines were widespread. Of the 35 cities reporting homicide figures, 31 posted year-over-year decreases. Murders dropped 41% in Denver and fell 40% in both Washington, D.C. and Omaha. Little Rock recorded the largest increase, with murders rising 16%.
The analysis did not include data from Jackson or Birmingham, which had the nation’s highest murder rates per capita in 2024, according to FBI statistics.
Final nationwide homicide figures will be released later this year, but researchers expect the official 2025 rate to confirm the historic low suggested by the current data.
Source: Axios