With the “Economy and Affordability” top issues for Americans, it’s appropriate to give President Trump a grade on the economy
Hint: it won’t be the A plus plus he gives himself.
A January 2026 AP poll shows only 37 percent of Americans approve of President Trump’s handling of the economy, down from 40 percent earlier in 2025. And a recent CNN poll shows 55 percent believe his policies have worsened economic conditions. So unsurprisingly, economic data show President Trump’s economy faring worse in most categories than Biden’s economy in 2024.
Comparing 2024 to 2025, Biden had a higher annual economic growth rate than Trump (GDP of 2.8 vs an estimated 2.1), a much higher job growth rate (2 million jobs vs a dismal 584,000 under Trump), a lower annual unemployment rate (4.0 vs 4.4), and despite Trump’s boasting, higher gains in Biden’s stock market—S&P 500 (up 23 percent vs 16 percent).
There are some areas of similarity. The U.S. budget deficit in FY25 under Trump was $1.8 trillion, similar to Biden’s in FY24. The first three months of FY26 show a lower USG budget deficit, but December’s deficit was higher. However, Trump’s numbers are helped by tariff revenues, which may be struck down by the Supreme Court.
Trump does show a lower trade deficit but this was helped by tariffs which reduced imports—and the outlook for tariffs is uncertain. On inflation, Trump shows a slight improvement, with the CPI in 2025 starting at 3 percent and ending at 2.7 percent. However, the trend over the last three years was down steadily, dropping to 2.4 in April then rising to 3.0 in October after Trump’s high tariffs. Many think annual inflation is higher than 2.7 percent due to USG shutdown data distortions; NPR’s survey shows the prices of 14 items at Walmart up 5 percent over 2025.
Recent surveys of U.S. consumer sentiment, including the University of Michigan’s index, show confidence down sharply over 2025. In sum, Trump has worse overall economic results. Hence, I would give him a D.
For 2026, most economists expect continued high inflation and weak job gains. If enhanced ACA health subsidies aren’t approved, premiums will skyrocket. Gas prices will likely stay low but due to more OPEC versus U.S. oil drilling. Our K-shaped economy will continue with the rich getting richer and the poor and lower-middle class getting poorer.
David Young, Gettysburg