The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center recently released its U.S. Winter Outlook, forecasting a winter influenced by a gradually emerging La Niña. Expected to shape conditions from December 2024 to February 2025, La Niña will likely bring distinct patterns of temperature, precipitation, and drought across the country.
The forecast predicts wetter-than-average conditions for northern regions, especially the Pacific Northwest, Great Lakes, and northern and western Alaska. Conversely, much of the southern U.S., stretching from the Four Corners region to the Southeast, Gulf Coast, and lower mid-Atlantic, is expected to experience drier-than-average conditions.
“La Niña typically shifts the storm track northward in winter, leading to drier, warmer conditions in the southern U.S.,” explained Jon Gottschalck, chief of NOAA’s Operational Prediction Branch. These La Niña-influenced patterns may worsen drought conditions in the central and southern Plains, where dry soil conditions are already prevalent.
Assistant Secretary Michael Morgan emphasized NOAA’s commitment to refining seasonal forecasts, citing a recent $100 million investment in NOAA’s computing systems to improve climate and weather predictions. “Long-term predictions like these are essential for supporting our partners and the public in making informed decisions,” he said.
With nearly a quarter of the continental U.S. currently experiencing moderate drought, NOAA’s Brad Pugh expressed concern, noting that this winter’s outlook suggests limited drought relief for many areas already facing water shortages.
Source: NOAA