There is always Monday morning quarterbacking after a presidential debate. Harris oddly didn’t mention Trump’s first impeachment when talking about the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and Trump, oddly, claimed that Democrats were killing newborn children and feeding American pets to Haitian immigrants. However, the one topic I was most interested in was also the most disappointing: climate change.
In my Fall semester Biology classes, we tackle that elephant in the room to understand its implications on the living world. Domestic and international students are consistently under-informed on the topic. Many often believe that the issue remains “controversial” or that natural cycles will save us from our excesses.
However, the numbers are simple: we have dumped 1700 gigatons of excess CO2 into the atmosphere and continue to dump around 40 gigatons every year. Meanwhile global ecosystems manage to store around 1 gigaton of carbon annually through natural cycles. We can only emit around 250 additional gigatons before things start getting very dangerous. Earth has about six years to head off the worst effects of climate change. Ideally CO2 emissions would stop now.
Globally we are headed in the wrong direction and nationally we are doing very little to change course. Global mean temperatures are 1.4oC above pre-industrial levels. Most of the world committed to capping that increase to between 1.5oC and 2 oC eight years ago. Those hot summers, super-storms, and spreading invasive species will continue to get worse.
As I explain to my own children, 1.5oC is bad, but 2oC is worse, 3oC is terrible, 4oC is unimaginable. Our business-as-usual scenario has us headed for over 3oC by the time my youngest has his 86th birthday. There is no reason to believe the trajectory would stop there. His children can look forward to something even worse.
I told my students to pay attention during the debate to the one fact that often shocks them the most: the U.S. currently produces more gas and oil than any nation in history, and we have released more excess CO2 than any nation (427 giga-tons out of the extra 1700 giga tons out there). Thanks to efficiency and renewables, our per-capita emissions are going down, but they are still much higher than any other nation.
So, I was very disappointed to see Harris and Trump court my Pennsylvania vote by doubling down on their commitments to fossil fuels. Politicians are going to pander, and the climate issue is both wonky and scientific. However, after this punishing summer I think we can all begin to see that the long-term heat is worse than the short-term benefits of our “fracking boom.” I don’t know anyone who has personally benefitted from that alleged boom, although I suppose they are here somewhere (apparently they make up 0.32 percent of our state workforce). Their financial gains are less important than the lives of my children and grandchildren, and I will not base my vote on the fast money of these rapacious industries.
The time for an energy transition was 1980. We had all the necessary evidence then and could have made the necessary changes with minimal costs. The bill is much higher now, and will only continue to grow as our children enter adulthood. This week’s debate moved the Overton Window back a few decades as our country and world swelters. We can only hope that this one step back will be followed by two steps forward.
Ryan Kerney is an Associate Professor of Biology at Gettysburg College. He is an affiliate member of the Biochemistry and Molecular Biology Department and the Department of Public Policy. Ryan is also the program director for Advancing Science, a free lending library of scientific equipment, lesson plans and expertise for regional schools.