On July 18, 2023, a centrist group called No Labels signaled that they will present a 3rd Party presidential candidate by March, 2024 if the main party choices are Donald Trump and Joe Biden. This announcement set off alarm bells among Democrats. Why? Because this new Party may pave the way for a 2nd Trump presidential term and risk the future of our democratic system of government.
On their website No Labels describes itself as “a national movement pushing our leaders to solve our country’s biggest problems.” No Labels [further] “ensures that Americans have a choice to vote for a Presidential ticket that features strong, effective, and honest leaders.” So far No Labels is on the ballot in 10 states, four of which are potential swing states. They plan to be on the ballot in all 50 states. As yet, they have not picked any candidates.
Third Party candidates can have an impact on Presidential elections. Just look at Al Gore or George H. W. Bush. In 2000, Gore fell short of victory by 537 votes in Florida where Ralph Nader, the Green Party candidate, won more than 97,000 votes. George H. W. Bush lost his bid for a 2nd term in 1992 when Ross Perot, the Reform Party, candidate won 19% of the vote.
A Third Party candidate may seem tempting to many who are dissatisfied with the presumptive rematch of Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Yet this No Labels effort could have a profoundly negative impact on our democratic system of government, especially if this Party gathers enough Democratic votes to elect Donald Trump again. Here are five observations to consider.
Money – Although No Labels is not transparent about where and from whom they receive their funding, they do say that this is a $70 million effort. There are unconfirmed reports that conservative donors are moving money to No Labels because they realize Donald Trump will need a third party like No Labels to divert Democratic voters in order to win.
No Labels Voters Would Come From the Biden Coalition – A recent New York Times poll showed Donald Trump and Joe Biden in a tie at 41%-41%. No Labels has polled their “moderate independent” candidate and Trump wins by 5% over Biden and 13% over the 3rd Party candidate in this 3-way race. This shows that Trump’s support is generally unwavering, while Biden’s support is generally weaker. No Labels will siphon Democratic votes not Republican votes.
Biden is More Vulnerable in Close States – In 2020, Biden won six States (GA, WI, PA, NV, AZ, and MI) by 3 points or less. Even a paltry performance by a third party candidate would put these 79 electoral votes at risk. Trump’s vote share of the blue wall states (MI, PA, WI) actually increased in 2020 from his showing in 2016. The reason Biden won those states was because there was either a weak or no third party candidate.
No Labels is Hurting Democrats Now – No Labels has argued that both parties are extremists. They have not explained the criteria they have used to make that assessment. President Biden has passed several bipartisan pieces of legislation. To equate him with four times indicted Donald Trump who attempted to overthrow a free and fair election is preposterous.
No Labels Assurance of an “off ramp” Does Not Hold Up – No Labels says they will “stand down” if their party is not needed. Yet they provide no criteria as to how they would make that determination. Would they look at polls? If so, which ones? Or would they make the determination based on the major party nominees? They do not say. Also, it is difficult to imagine that Trump-supporting, No Labels donors would agree to “stand down”, particularly if they see Democratic votes being diverted to the No Labels party.
There is no question that No Labels has the right to create and run a third party candidate. The question is why would they do this at this critical time? Our Nation is at a crisis point. To run a candidate who will help elect Donald Trump is irresponsible and dangerous. No Labels needs to acknowledge that our democratic system is now at risk, and do everything it can to assure that Trump never holds public office again. If No Labels is so dissatisfied with President Joe Biden, run a candidate against him in the primaries. Do not create a third party that will never win, but may help spell the end of our democracy.
imho, No Labels intends to serve as a spoiler on behalf of the indicted Donald J. Trump not because they truly believe Trump is as bad as he is. Whomever they convince to toss their hat into the ring cannot by themselves garner enough votes to win but they can assure the party with whom they are aligned of a less-than majority victory. Eliot Cutler served the same purpose in Maine for the benefit of Paul LePage more than a decade ago and that state ended up with an awful governor (who called himself Trump Lite) for several years. The… Read more »