Democrats believe they have their best shot in recent memory at winning a vaunted trifecta — control of the governorship and both legislative chambers.
by Stephen Caruso of Spotlight PA
The dome of the Pennsylvania Capitol in Harrisburg.Amanda Berg / For Spotlight PA
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HARRISBURG — Control of the Pennsylvania General Assembly is on the ballot in 2026, and a handful of seats will likely decide who has the power to help set policy in the Keystone State.
Republicans have held the state Senate almost continuously for 45 years and hope to keep it that way come November. Democrats see a path to take the upper chamber while maintaining the narrow state House majority they won in 2022.
The biggest battlegrounds include perennial targets where strong incumbents have hung on in districts trending away from their parties; hotly contested open seats in purple areas; and two races in which unlikely Democratic incumbents are trying to hold on after winning special elections.
If historic trends hold, this year should favor Democrats. The party that does not control the presidency usually does well in midterm elections, and at least one nonpartisan forecaster argues Pennsylvania Democrats have their best shot in recent memory at winning a vaunted trifecta — meaning control of the governorship and both legislative chambers.
Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro is also up for reelection this year, so a popular incumbent will be at the top of the ticket. Shapiro romped to victory in his first gubernatorial election. The Republican establishment hopes state Treasurer Stacy Garrity will prove to be a stronger opponent than Shapiro’s first, state Sen. Doug Mastriano, though polling shows her trailing by double digits.
If Shapiro wins reelection and Democrats win control of both chambers, the party will be able to set the state’s policy agenda with little to no input from Republicans. That would open a clear path to raise the minimum wage, legalize recreational cannabis, and implement paid family leave (although the exact details of each push may spark internal debate among Democrats).
Democrats currently hold the state House 103-100, and Republicans control the state Senate 27-23.
To get an outright majority in the state Senate, Democrats need a net gain of three seats. A tied chamber, combined with control of the governor’s office, would give Democrats the power to pick the Senate’s president, write its rules, and run the voting calendar, since the lieutenant governor can make tie-breaking procedural votes.
The lieutenant governor, however, can’t vote on the final passage of legislation. That means Democrats wouldn’t be able to rely on only their own members to advance bills.
“There are three seats that are pretty much toss-ups or close to toss-ups in the Pennsylvania Senate,” said Chaz Nuttycombe, executive director of State Navigate, a nonpartisan nonprofit focused on state legislatures. His organization has so far released polls of three competitive Pennsylvania Senate races and found all to be within single digits.
Below, Spotlight PA runs down the key districts to watch.
State Senate
The Pennsylvania Senate is made up of 50 members who serve four-year terms. Those terms are staggered, so half of the body — the even-numbered districts — will be on the ballot this year. Republicans’ current 27-23 majority is the Senate’s narrowest margin since the 2013-14 session, according to Ballotpedia.
Five districts, all in the eastern half of the state, are expected to be competitive. Four are held by Republicans, while a Democrat won the fifth in a special election upset.
Democrats’ four top flip opportunities are the 6th, 16th, 24th, and 40th Districts. Voters in each backed President Donald Trump by between two and 12 percentage points in 2024, though a majority have also supported Democrats like Shapiro in other statewide elections.
- The 6th Senate District, in suburban Bucks County, is represented by veteran GOP legislator Frank Farry. He is facing Bucks County Clerk of Courts Eileen Hartnett Albillar. An August poll from State Navigate found Albillar up 46-45 among likely voters.
- Conservative Shapiro critic Jarrett Coleman holds the 16th, an exurban seat split between upper Bucks County and Allentown’s suburbs in Lehigh County. The Republican faces Lehigh County Controller Mark Pinsley. State Navigate plans to release a poll of this race Thursday.
- The 24th, including Pottstown in outer Montgomery County and parts of Berks County, is held by Republican Tracy Pennycuick. She faces Chris Thomas, a former Montgomery County Democratic Committee leader. State Navigate plans to release a poll of this race Thursday.
- The 40th, which stretches across three counties in the Poconos, is held by Rosemary Brown. The Republican is running against business owner Brian Wrightson. A September poll from State Navigate found Brown up 47-44.
The latter two races have been defined by the ongoing data center debate.
Farry, who served in the state House before joining the Senate in 2023, acknowledged that he’ll need to win over voters who split their tickets.
“There’s obviously some people that will never vote for Frank Farry, or in some cases, never vote for Republicans,” Farry told Spotlight PA. “And there’s some that on the other side they’ll never vote for my opponent or never vote for a Democrat. But there’s a lot of people in the middle that just want elected officials to do their job.”
Democrats will need to both persuade swing voters and motivate their base to turn out. To do so, Senate Democrats’ campaign committee staffed up to knock on doors all summer and is closely coordinating with Shapiro and the rest of the party, said Executive Director Jalen Nix.
“I don’t expect the Republicans to go quietly. They’ve had a majority for 30 years,” Nix told Spotlight PA. “And I do respect their ability to hold power. But I also trust in our ability to execute on the ground.”
Republicans are targeting at least three Democratic-held districts. The most competitive is the 36th in Lancaster County, which pits incumbent James Malone against GOP state Rep. Tom Jones. The seat, which stretches across the farmland, small towns, and suburbs north of Lancaster city, flipped to Democrats in a March 2025 special election upset.
Holding the seat will be tough for Malone. Trump won the district’s voters by 15 points in 2024. A poll conducted in early September by State Navigate shows Jones leading 48-45.
Republicans are also targeting the 38th District, which spans Pittsburgh’s northern suburbs, and the 14th District in the Lehigh Valley. Voters in both tend to back Democrats at the top of the ticket; presidential candidate Kamala Harris won the former by 10 and the latter by less than a point in 2024.
“Voters in Pennsylvania are smart and independent-minded,” Senate Republican Campaign Committee spokesperson Michael Straw said in a statement. “When they vote for State Senate their focus will be on the candidates running in those races, not the top-of-the-ticket.”
State House
The state House is made up of 203 members who serve two-year terms. The entire body is on the ballot this year. Democrats currently hold a 103-100 majority.
All told, about two dozen seats are expected to be competitive. They’re located across the commonwealth, mostly in suburbs and exurbs outside Bethlehem, Harrisburg, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh.
Democrats’ hopes of expanding their slim majority were boosted in August after the party flipped a Butler County district outside of Pittsburgh that Trump won by 18 points. Before then, the party had governed the state House with a single-vote advantage since 2023.
Experts note that special election results are inherently anomalous due to low turnout and less public attention, but results can be a leading indicator of November.
“PA House Democrats are on offense,” Pennsylvania House Democratic Campaign Committee Executive Director Madeline Zann said in an early September statement. “Post-Labor Day, we have re-evaluated the map and made strategic investments in a number of races as the environment continues to shift in our favor and we prepare for an expanded majority in November.”
Three open seats are among the most closely watched races. Races without an incumbent are usually easier to flip, as neither candidate typically has the name recognition that incumbents enjoy.
Popular GOP incumbent Sheryl Delozier is not running for reelection in the 88th district in Cumberland County, a historically Republican south-central Pennsylvania locale that is among the fastest-growing regions in the commonwealth. The district, which includes parts of Harrisburg’s West Shore suburbs like Mechanicsburg and New Cumberland, went for Trump by less than a percentage point in 2024.
Democrats will have to defend a few seats where voters backed Trump in 2024 — most notably the 72nd District in Cambria County, which includes Johnstown. Voters in this historically Democratic region of steel mills and coal mines have shifted toward Republicans over the past two decades. However, state Rep. Frank Burns has remained in office despite his district backing Trump by more than 31 percentage points in 2024. Burns faces Republican Phil Rice, an Army veteran.
Democrats are facing challengers in five other districts where voters backed Trump in 2024, including one seat in Beaver County outside Pittsburgh, two in Northeastern Pennsylvania, and one in Bucks County. A State Navigate poll found the latter incumbent, Brian Munroe of the 144th district, had a 12-point lead over his Republican opponent Mike Murphy in August.
House Republicans’ campaign committee did not reply to specific questions from Spotlight PA. But in a statement, state House Minority Leader Jesse Topper (R., Bedford) called the party’s recent loss in Butler County a “disappointing but unsurprising” result driven by changing demographics and the unpredictable nature of special elections.
“There is much more yet to unfold in the final months of the 2026 election cycle, and we will continue carrying our vision for positive growth in Pennsylvania through November,” Topper said.
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