Right now, Donald Trump appears to be the presumptive GOP Presidential candidate. He leads most of his rivals by 30 points or more in the polls. Yet the political landscape may look quite different in the coming months for Mr. Trump. There will be significant landmines ahead, and there is no guarantee he will be able to avoid them. Let’s take a look at some of these obstacles to his nomination.
First, it should be noted that we are entering uncharted waters in this 2024 election cycle. We have never experienced a presumptive Presidential candidate who has been accused of so many criminal and civil crimes. Here’s where two of the trials stand.
In Atlanta, the first two of Mr. Trump’s co-defendants were scheduled to go on trial in November. They were charged with conspiracy to overturn the 2020 election. But Ms. Sydney Powell and Mr. Kenneth Chesebro agreed to plead guilty, gain reduced sentences, and testify for the prosecution. Ms. Powell was present at a critical December 18th White House meeting where confiscating election machines was discussed. Mr. Chesebro was the architect of the fake elector scheme.
This is terrible news for Mr. Trump because they will now be testifying against him. When this trial occurs, we can be assured that Mr. Trump’s role in overturning the 2020 election will be on full display. There will be little opportunity to spin the evidence, and there will be a mountain of evidence against him. Do not be surprised if 10 or more of the 19 defendants in this Georgia conspiracy case eventually end up pleading guilty in exchange for lesser sentences and end up testifying for the prosecution.
At the same time, Mr. Trump is in the midst of a civil fraud trial in New York State. This trial risks the partial dismantling of his business empire because of his fraudulent business practices. Could either of these trials change the minds of primary voters in the early GOP primaries scheduled in January? 79% of Iowa Republican voters say Donald Trump is their first choice, but are open to other GOP candidates. New Hampshire voters are unpredictable, but even there, 31% say they are open to other candidates. If both States turn against Mr. Trump, the GOP nomination process may suddenly open up.
A second hurdle for Mr. Trump is the 14th amendment to the Constitution which states that anyone who has engaged in an insurrection against the United States cannot run for public office. So far at least four States have initiated actions to remove Mr. Trump from their primary ballots based on this Amendment. This issue will ultimately have to be decided by the Supreme Court – possibly as early as November. And this case may not be a slam dunk decision in Mr. Trump’s favor. Several conservative, Constitutional scholars have looked at the Amendment in light of Mr. Trump’s actions around the 2020 election and concluded he should be ineligible to hold any public office.
A third obstacle may be Mr. Trump himself. He is under tremendous pressure. He faces 91 felony counts in four separate trials and several civil suits (including the one to dismantle his financial empire). In addition, he is running for President with all of the stressors that entails. He also knows he must win the Presidency to have any chance of avoiding these multiple criminal charges. Mr. Trump is a resilient individual, but how much pressure can one person endure mentally – especially one in his late 70’s?
I suspect that at least some of Mr. Trump’s GOP rivals are staying in the race despite their low poll numbers for reasons cited here. At some point they may ask voters: do you want a Presidential nominee who may go to prison? Or if the Supreme Court does rule that Mr. Trump is ineligible for public office, these candidates are ready to step in. Mr. Trump may also realize that the next months for him look perilous. That may be one reason he has asked the Republican National Committee to dispense with all primary debates and declare him to be their Presidential candidate. The Committee denied that request.
So Mr. Trump’s road to the GOP nomination may not be as smooth as it now looks. With Mr. Trump’s legal troubles becoming more and more perilous, the GOP will need to assess their options because the obstacles are real and not going away.
