Traditionally, when the vast majority of votes were cast on election day, there were states where it was possible to project most Senate and congressional races within an hour or so after polls closed and it was possible for an attentive viewer to forecast trends by perhaps 9:00, certainly 10:00 in the evening.
The advent of extensive early and absentee voting, coupled with laws (as in PA) prohibiting pre-processing before election day, prolong the count. And because of the very different voting strategies of the two parties (Democrats ask their voters to vote early while the GOP asks theirs to vote on election day), early returns can be very deceptive. The “refuse to concede and sue everybody about everything” approach adds yet another uncertainty into election night vote counts.
Nevertheless, there are certain states that will get most of their votes counted on election night and in some of them, there are close races that could tip one way or the other. The 30 races shown here may provide early insights to TV watchers. If 4 or 5 of these races break consistently one way, especially if the results run counter to the prediction, especially if any of the “likely” races go the other way, that’s a strong suggestion that there might be a trend.
The descriptions of each state’s vote counting and the election forecasts are from Real Clear Politics as of Sunday, November 6.
State-by-state
Florida. Florida is one of the fastest states to count its votes. All early and many mail votes (a sizable chunk of the total) must be reported within 30 minutes of polls closing, and Election Day votes are reported within hours.
Races to watch:
FL 13 Likely R
FL 23 likely D
FL 27 Likely R
Rhode Island. More than 95 percent of the vote is expected to report within two hours after polls close (8 pm).
Race to watch: RI 2 Tossup
Oklahoma. All ballots other than provisionals are expected to be reported on election night — likely before 1 a.m. Eastern.
Race to watch; Governor likely R
New Mexico First results are expected to be in not long after polls close, and nearly all votes are expected to be reported on election night.
Gov likely D
NM 2 Likely R
New Hampshire. A spokesperson for the secretary of state told FiveThirtyEight, “We expect 100 percent of the unofficial results to be reported on election night.”
Senate Lean D
NH1 Lean D
NH 2 Likely D
Minnesota. Initial results are expected to be reported by 9:15 p.m. Eastern, and the secretary of state expects nearly all results to be in by 1 a.m.
Governor Likely d
MN 2 – Lean D
Indiana. Nearly all results are expected to be reported on election night.
IN1 likely D
Iowa. virtually all results are expected to be reported on election night.
IA Likely R
IA 2 Likely R
IA 3 Lean r
New York Results from New York City are expected to start coming in around 9:30 p.m. Eastern, followed by the rest of the state. While mail ballots can still arrive as late as Nov. 15 if postmarked by Election Day, most results are expected to be reported on election night.
NY 3 Lean D
NY 17 Lean D
NY 18 Lean D
NY 19 Lean D
NY 22 Lean R
Virginia. the vast majority of results are expected to be reported on election night. However, mail ballots are due on Nov. 14, so we will have to wait a bit for the last batch of votes.
VA 2 tossup
VA 7 Lean D
North Carolina. Early votes and absentee votes received by Monday afternoon (which together constitute the vast majority of votes) will be reported within 90 minutes after polls close. Election Day votes will then be reported starting around 8:30 p.m. Eastern until around midnight. However, North Carolina accepts mail ballots postmarked by Election Day until Nov. 14
Senate Likely R
NC 13 Likely R
New Jersey. Most ballots are expected to be reported on election night. But New Jersey accepts mail ballots postmarked by Election Day that arrive as late as Nov. 14, so results won’t truly be complete until then.
NJ 3 Likely D
NJ 5 Likely D
NJ 7 Lean R
Pennsylvania. there are a few reasons to think it will take less time than it did two years ago. First, it’s likely that fewer absentee ballots will be cast this year than in 2020. Counties are also more experienced and prepared for a large volume of absentees. And most counties are only allowed to stop counting when they have finished. Several counties told the Philadelphia Inquirer that they expect to be mostly finished counting by Wednesday morning.
Senate tossup
PA 7 tossup
PA 17 tossup
PA 8 Lean D
Leon Reed, freelance reporter, is a former US Senate staff member, defense consultant, and history teacher. He is a 10 year resident of Gettysburg, where he writes military history and explores the park and the Adams County countryside. He is the publisher at Little Falls Books, chaired the Adams County 2020 Census Complete Count Committee and is on the board of SCCAP. He and his wife, Lois, have 3 children, 3 cats, and 5 grandchildren.